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Assessment of extreme wind speeds from Regional Climate Models - Part 1: Estimation of return values and their evaluation

Kunz, M. ORCID iD icon 1; Mohr, S. ORCID iD icon 1; Kottmeier, C. 1; Rauthe, M. 1; Lux, R. 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Frequency and intensity of gust wind speeds associated with severe mid-latitude winter storms are estimated by applying extreme value statistics to data sets from regional climate models (RCM). Maximum wind speeds related to probability are calculated with the classical peaks over threshold method, where a statistical distribution function is fitted to the reduced sample describing the tail of the distribution function. From different sensitivity studies it is found that the Generalized Pareto Distribution in combination with a Maximum-Likelihood estimator provide the most reliable and robust results.
For a reference period from 1971 to 2000, the ability of the RCMs to realistically simulate extreme wind speeds is investigated. For this purpose, data from three RCM scenarios, including the REMO-UBA simulations at 10 km resolution and the so-called consortial runs performed with the CCLM at 18 km resolution (two runs), are evaluated with observations and a pre-existing storm hazard map for Germany. It is found that all RCMs tend to underestimate the magnitude of the gusts in a range between 10 and 30% for a 10-year return period. Averaged over the investigation area, the underestimation is higher for CCLM compared to REMO. ... mehr


Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000018999
Veröffentlicht am 21.11.2022
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-10-907-2010
Scopus
Zitationen: 67
Web of Science
Zitationen: 63
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2010
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1561-8633, 1684-9981
KITopen-ID: 1000018999
HGF-Programm 12.01.03 (POF II, LK 01) Regionale Modellierung
Erschienen in Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Verlag European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Band 10
Heft 4
Seiten 907-922
Externe Relationen Abstract/Volltext
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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