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URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-251878

Perturbation Dynamics and Impact of Different Perturbation Methods in Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecasting

Lang, Simon

Abstract:
Ensemble forecasts are used to quantify the uncertatinty that is associated with a single weather forecast. In the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts different perturbation methods are applied to account for uncertainties associated with the initial conditions and the forecast model. In this study, the impact of the different methods on tropical cyclone forecasts is analysed and the growth mechanisms of the perturbations are identified.


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Jahr 2011
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen ID: 1000025187
Verlag Karlsruhe
Abschlussart Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK)
Prüfungsdaten 28.10.2011
Referent/Betreuer Prof. S. C. Jones
Schlagworte Tropical Cyclones, Stochastis Physics, Ensemble Forecasting, Year of Tropical Convection, Singular Vectors
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