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Forecasting Economic Indices - Design, Performance, and Learning in Prediction Markets

Teschner, Florian

Abstract:
Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government even though the historical accuracy and reliability is disputed. This thesis develops and studies a prediction market designed to forecast macro-economic indicators in Germany. The market forecasts performed well in comparison to the 'Bloomberg'-survey forecasts. Distinguishing between trading behavior and performance the thesis provides insights into the interplay between interface, information and decision-making.

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000029512
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Informationswirtschaft und -management (IISM)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Publikationsjahr 2012
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator urn:nbn:de:swb:90-295126
KITopen-ID: 1000029512
Verlag KIT, Karlsruhe
Art der Arbeit Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften (WIWI)
Institut Institut für Informationswirtschaft und -management (IISM)
Prüfungsdaten 27.07.2012
Referent/Betreuer Prof. C. Weinhardt
Schlagwörter Prediction Market, Forecasting, Interface, Macro-economic
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
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