Forecasting Economic Indices - Design, Performance, and Learning in Prediction Markets

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government even though the historical accuracy and reliability is disputed. This thesis develops and studies a prediction market designed to forecast macro-economic indicators in Germany. The market forecasts performed well in comparison to the 'Bloomberg'-survey forecasts. Distinguishing between trading behavior and performance the thesis provides insights into the interplay between interface, information and decision-making.