Conceptual Causal Framework for the Diffusion of Emerging CO2-saving Technologies in Heavy Commercial Vehicles

This working paper proposes a conceptual causal framework for analyzing the future diffusion of CO2-saving technologies in heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) by combining existing studies about the HCV market, an overview of market forecasting methods, and literature on organizational adoption of innovations. On this basis, the most influencing stakeholders are identified, in particular truck manufacturer, HCV customer, energy supply system and government.