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Future changes in flash flood frequency and intensity of the Tha Di River (Thailand) based on rainfall–runoff modeling and advanced delta change scaling

Hilgert, S.; Wagner, A.; Fuchs, S.

As a consequence of climate change, extreme and flood-causing precipitation events are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, especially in today's high-precipitation areas. During the north-east monsoon seasons, Nakhon Si Thammarat in southern Thailand is flash-flooded every 2.22 years on average. This study investigates frequency and intensity of harmful discharges of the Tha Di River regarding the IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2. The regional climate model (RCM) PRECIS was transformed using the advanced delta change (ADC) method. The hydrologic response model HBV-Light was calibrated to the catchment and supplied with ADC-scaled daily precipitation and temperature data for 2010–2089. Under the A2 (B2) scenario, the flood threshold exceedance frequency on average increases by 133 % (decreases by 10 %), average flood intensity increases by 3 % (decreases by 2 %) and the annual top five discharge peaks intensities increase by 46 % (decrease by 5 %). Yearly precipitation sums increase by 30 % (10 %) towards the end of the century. The A2 scenario predicts a precipitation increase during the rainy season, which intensifies flood events; while increases projected exclusively for the dry season are not expected to cause floods. ... mehr

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DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000049935
DOI: 10.5194/hessd-12-7327-2015
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Siedlungswasserwirtschaft, alt (ISWW)
Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung (IWG)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1812-2108, 1812-2116
KITopen-ID: 1000049935
Erschienen in Hydrology and earth system sciences discussions
Band 12
Heft 8
Seiten 7327-7352
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
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