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A multi-stage scenario construction approach for critical infrastructure protection

Schätter, Frank 1; Meng, Sascha 1; Wiens, Marcus 1; Schultmann, Frank 1
1 Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion (IIP), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Protecting critical infrastructures (CIs) against external and internal risks in an increasingly uncertain environment is a major challenge. In this paper we present a generic multi-stage scenario construction approach that is applicable to a wide range of decision problems in the field of CI protection. Our approach combines scenario construction and decision support, whereby we explicitly consider the performance of decision options which have been determined for a set of initial scenarios. Because of the iterative character of our approach, consequences of decision options and information updates are evolutionary processed towards advanced scenarios. By disturbing vulnerable or critical parts of CIs, cascading effects between interrelated CIs and the responses to the decision options can be determined. We apply this scenario-construction technique to two civil security research projects. One focuses on protecting food supply chains against disruptions, whereas the other aims at securing public railway transport against terrorist attacks.

Zitationen: 4
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion – Deutsch-Französisches Institut für Umweltforschung (DFIU)
Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion (IIP)
Universität Karlsruhe (TH) – Interfakultative Einrichtungen (Interfakultative Einrichtungen)
Publikationstyp Proceedingsbeitrag
Publikationsjahr 2014
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISBN: 978-069221194-6
KITopen-ID: 1000052949
Erschienen in ISCRAM 2014 Conference Proceedings, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA, May 18‑21, 2014. 11th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. Ed.: S. R. Hiltz
Verlag The Pennsylvania State University
Seiten 399–408
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Globale Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung Ziel 9 – Industrie, Innovation und Infrastruktur
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