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Climate, CO₂, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

Knorr, K.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

Abstract. Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ–GUESS–SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation–wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fir ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator DOI: 10.5194/bg-13-267-2016
ISSN: 1726-4170
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-531600
KITopen ID: 1000053160
HGF-Programm 12.02.02; LK 01
Erschienen in Biogeosciences
Band 13
Heft 1
Seiten 267-282
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