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Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models

Dosio, A.; Panitz, H.-J.

In the framework of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX), an ensemble of climate change projections for Africa has been created by downscaling the simulations of four global climate models (GCMs) by means of the consortium for small-scale modeling (COSMO) regional climate model (RCM) (COSMO-CLM, hereafter, CCLM). Differences between the projected temperature and precipitation simulated by CCLM and the driving GCMs are analyzed and discussed. The projected increase of seasonal temperature is found to be relatively similar between GCMs and RCM, although large differences (more than 1 °C) exist locally. Differences are also found for extreme-event related quantities, such as the spread of the upper end of the maximum temperature probability distribution function and, in turn, the duration of heat waves. Larger uncertainties are found in the future precipitation changes; this is partly a consequence of the inter-model (GCMs) variability over some areas (e.g. Sahel). However, over other regions (e.g. Central Africa) the rainfall trends simulated by CCLM and the GCMs show opposite signs, with CCLM showing a significant reduction in precipitation at the end of the century. ... mehr

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DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000053236
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2664-4
Zitationen: 82
Web of Science
Zitationen: 79
Zitationen: 85
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0930-7575, 1432-0894
KITopen-ID: 1000053236
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Climate dynamics
Verlag Springer
Band 46
Heft 5-6
Seiten 1599-1625
Schlagwörter COSMO-CLM, Regional climate model, CORDEX-Africa, CMIP5, GCMs, Land–atmosphere interaction
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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