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Verlagsausgabe
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000053480
Veröffentlicht am 08.03.2018
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015
Scopus
Zitationen: 14
Web of Science
Zitationen: 12

Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change

Engström, K.; Rounsevell, M.D.A.; Murray-Rust, D.; Hardacre, C.; Alexander, P.; Cui, X.; Palmer, P.I.; Arneth, A.

Abstract:
We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socio- economic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change.


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1364-8152, 1873-6726
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-534802
KITopen ID: 1000053480
HGF-Programm 12.02.02; LK 01
Erschienen in Environmental modelling & software
Band 75
Seiten 212-229
Schlagworte Global agricultural land-use; Parsimonious models; Parameter uncertainty; Sensitivity analysis; Cereal yields
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