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Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change

Engström, K.; Rounsevell, M. D. A. ORCID iD icon; Murray-Rust, D.; Hardacre, C.; Alexander, P.; Cui, X.; Palmer, P. I.; Arneth, A. 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


We present a parsimonious agricultural land-use model that is designed to replicate global land-use change while allowing the exploration of uncertainties in input parameters. At the global scale, the modelled uncertainty range of agricultural land-use change covers observed land-use change. Spatial patterns of cropland change at the country level are simulated less satisfactorily, but temporal trends of cropland change in large agricultural nations were replicated by the model. A variance-based global sensitivity analysis showed that uncertainties in the input parameters representing to consumption preferences are important for changes in global agricultural areas. However, uncertainties in technological change had the largest effect on cereal yields and changes in global agricultural area. Uncertainties related to technological change in developing countries were most important for modelling the extent of cropland. The performance of the model suggests that highly generalised representations of socio- economic processes can be used to replicate global land-use change.

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000053480
Veröffentlicht am 08.03.2018
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.015
Zitationen: 26
Web of Science
Zitationen: 24
Zitationen: 26
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1364-8152, 1873-6726
KITopen-ID: 1000053480
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Environmental modelling & software
Verlag Elsevier
Band 75
Seiten 212-229
Schlagwörter Global agricultural land-use; Parsimonious models; Parameter uncertainty; Sensitivity analysis; Cereal yields
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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