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On What Scale Can We Predict the Agronomic Onset of the West African Monsoon?

Fitzpatrick, Rory G.J.; Bain, Caroline L.; Knippertz, Peter; Marsham, John H.; Parker, Douglas J.

Abstract (englisch):
Accurate prediction of the commencement of local rainfall over West Africa can provide vital information for local stakeholders and regional planners. However, in comparison with analysis of the regional onset of the West African monsoon, the spatial variability of the local monsoon onset has not been extensively explored. One of the main reasons behind the lack of local onset forecast analysis is the spatial noisiness of local rainfall. A new method that evaluates the spatial scale at which local onsets are coherent across West Africa is presented. This new method can be thought of as analogous to a regional signal against local noise analysis of onset. This method highlights regions where local onsets exhibit a quantifiable degree of spatial consistency (denoted local onset regions or LORs). It is found that local onsets exhibit a useful amount of spatial agreement, with LORs apparent across the entire studied domain; this is in contrast to previously found results. Identifying local onset regions and understanding their variability can provide important insight into the spatial limit of monsoon predictability. While local onset regions can be found over West Africa, their size is much smaller than the scale found for seasonal rainfall homogeneity. ... mehr

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000054130
DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-15-0274.1
Zitationen: 5
Web of Science
Zitationen: 5
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0027-0644
KITopen-ID: 1000054130
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Monthly Weather Review
Band 144
Heft 4
Seiten 1571-1589
Schlagwörter Geographic location/entity, Africa, Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena, Monsoons, Forecasting, Numerical weather prediction/forecasting, Variability, Interannual variability;,Applications, Agriculture, Planning
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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