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High resolution climate projections to assess the future vulnerability of European urban areas to climatological extreme events

Fallmann, Joachim; Wagner, Sven; Emeis, Stefan

Results from high resolution 7-km WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations are used to analyse changes in the occurrence frequencies of heat waves, of precipitation extremes and of the duration of the winter time freezing period for highly populated urban areas in Central Europe. The projected climate change impact is assessed for 11 urban areas based on climate indices for a future period (2021–2050) compared to a reference period (1971–2000) using the IPCC AR4 A1B Scenario as boundary conditions. These climate indices are calculated from daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures as well as precipitation amounts. By this, the vulnerability of these areas to future climate conditions is to be investigated. The number of heat waves, as well as the number of single hot days, tropical nights and heavy precipitation events is projected to increase in the near future. In addition, the number of frost days is significantly decreased. Probability density functions of monthly mean summer time temperatures show an increase of the 95th percentile of about 1-3 °C for the future compared with the reference period. The projected increase ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0066-6424, 0177-798X, 1434-4483
KITopen ID: 1000054274
HGF-Programm 12.02.04; LK 01
Erschienen in Theoretical and applied climatology
Band 127
Heft 3-4
Seiten 667-683
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 26.10.2015
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