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Forecasting the northern African dust outbreak towards Europe in April 2011: A model intercomparison

Huneeus, N.; Basart, S.; Fiedler, S.; Morcrette, J.-J.; Benedetti, A.; Mulcahy, J.; Terradellas, E.; Pérez García-Pando, C.; Pejanovic, G.; Nickovic, S.; Arsenovic, P.; Schulz, M.; Cuevas, E.; Baldasano, J.M.; Pey, J.; Remy, S.; Cvetkovic, B.

In the framework of theWorld Meteorological Organisation’s Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 h using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. ... mehr

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DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000055283
DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-4967-2016
Zitationen: 25
Web of Science
Zitationen: 25
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1680-7316, 1680-7324
KITopen-ID: 1000055283
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Band 16
Heft 8
Seiten 4967-4986
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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