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Climate change in the next 30 years: What can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know?

Fosser, G.; Khodayar, S.; Berg, P.

Abstract (englisch):
To investigate the climate change in the next 30 years over a complex terrain in southwestern Germany, simulations performed with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM at convection-permitting resolution are compared to simulations at 7 km resolution with parameterised convection. An earlier study has shown the main benefits of convection-permitting resolution in the hourly statistics and the diurnal cycle of precipitation intensities. Here, we investigate whether the improved simulation of precipitation in the convection-permitting model is affecting future climate projections in summer. Overall, the future scenario (ECHAM5 with A1B forcing) brings weak changes in mean precipitation, but stronger hourly intensities in the morning and less frequent but more intense daily precipitation. The two model simulations produce similar changes in climate, despite differences in their physical characteristics linked to the formation of convective precipitation. A significant increase in the morning precipitation probably due to large-scale forced convection is found when considering only the most extreme events (above 50 mm/day). In this case, ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3186-4
ISSN: 0930-7575
KITopen ID: 1000056198
HGF-Programm 12.01.01; LK 01
Erschienen in Climate Dynamics
Band 48
Seiten 1987-2003
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung 2016 online veröffentlicht
Schlagworte Regional climate model Convection-permitting resolution Climate change COSMO-CLM Convection Atmospheric processes
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