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Robustness of serial clustering of extratropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

Pinto, Joaquim; Ulbrich, Sven; Economou, Theodoros; Stephenson, David; Karremann, Melanie 1; Shaffrey, Len
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Cyclone clusters are a frequent synoptic feature in the Euro-Atlantic area. Recent studies have shown that serial clustering of cyclones generally occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track, while cyclones tend to occur more regulary on the western side of the North Atlantic basin near Newfoundland. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of cyclone tracking method using cyclone track data from 15 methods derived from ERA-Interim data (1979-2010). Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter [December - February (DJF)] cyclone passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. The mean number of cyclone counts and their variance are compared between methods, revealing considerable differences, particularly for the latter. Results show that all different tracking methods qualitatively capture similar large-scale spatial patterns of underdispersion and overdispersion over the study region. The quantitative differences can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods. Nevertheless, overdispersion is statistically significant for almost all methods over parts of the eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe, and is therefore considered as a robust feature. ... mehr

Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000058834
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.32204
Zitationen: 18
Zitationen: 20
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1600-0870
KITopen-ID: 1000058834
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Tellus / A
Verlag Taylor & Francis Open Access
Band 68
Seiten 32204
Schlagwörter Poisson process, extratropical cyclones, clustering, dispersion statistics, North Atlantic, Europe, IMILAST, reanalysis
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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