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Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A.; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K.; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; ... mehr

Abstract:
Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas ori ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000061740
Veröffentlicht am 18.01.2018
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337
Scopus
Zitationen: 55
Web of Science
Zitationen: 49
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-617402
KITopen-ID: 1000061740
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Global change biology
Band 22
Heft 12
Seiten 3967-3983
Schlagworte land-use allocation; land-use change; land-use model uncertainty; map comparison; model intercomparison; model variation
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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