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Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison

Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Arneth, Almut 1; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A.; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K.; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D.; Schaldach, Rüdiger; ... mehr


Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from differ- ent input data applied in the models. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000061740
Veröffentlicht am 18.01.2018
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13337
Zitationen: 161
Web of Science
Zitationen: 151
Zitationen: 172
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486
KITopen-ID: 1000061740
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Global change biology
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 22
Heft 12
Seiten 3967-3983
Schlagwörter land-use allocation; land-use change; land-use model uncertainty; map comparison; model intercomparison; model variation
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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