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Quantitative precipitation estimation based on highresolution numerical weather prediction and data assimilation with WRF - a performance test

Bauer, Hans-Stefan; Schwitalla, Thomas; Wulfmeyer, Volker; Bakhshaii, Atoossa; Ehret, Uwe; Neuper, Malte; Caumont, Olivier

Abstract:
Quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting (QPE and QPF) are among the most challenging tasks in atmospheric sciences. In this work, QPE based on numerical modelling and data assimilation is investigated. Key components are the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in combination with its 3D variational assimilation scheme, applied on the convection-permitting scale with sophisticated model physics over central Europe. The system is operated in a 1-hour rapid update cycle and processes a large set of in situ observations, data from French radar systems, the European GPS network and satellite sensors. Additionally, a free forecast driven by the ECMWF operational analysis is included as a reference run representing current operational precipitation forecasting. The verification is done both qualitatively and quantitatively by comparisons of reflectivity, accumulated precipitation fields and derived verification scores for a complex synoptic situation that developed on 26 and 27 September 2012. The investigation shows that even the downscaling from ECMWF represents the synoptic situation reasonably well. However, significant improvements are seen in the results of the WRF QPE setup, especially when the French radar data are assimilated. ... mehr

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000062064
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.3402/tellusa.v67.25047
Scopus
Zitationen: 23
Web of Science
Zitationen: 19
Dimensions
Zitationen: 20
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung (IWG)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0280-6495, 1600-0870
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-620646
KITopen-ID: 1000062064
Erschienen in Tellus / A
Verlag Taylor & Francis Open Access
Band 67
Heft 1
Seiten Art. Nr.: 25047
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
Scopus
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