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How many RCM ensemble members provide confidence in the impact of land-use land cover change?

Laux, Patrick ORCID iD icon 1; Nguyen, Phuong N. B. 1; Cullmann, Johannes; Van, Tan Phan; Kunstmann, Harald 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract (englisch):

Regional climate models (RCMs) include both terrestrial and atmospheric compartments and thereby allow studying land–atmosphere feedback, in particular, the impact of land-use land cover driven by biogeophysical processes on regional climate. In this study, a method is developed to separate the signals from the noise in RCM simulations of the effects of changes in land use, using perturbed initial boundary conditions (PICs). We want to know how many ensemble members are required to identify robust and statistically significant land-use land cover change (LULCC) effects from RCM LULCC studies. The method is applied to a case study of urbanization and deforestation, for which LULCC scenarios are implemented in the RCM Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF). Based on WRF ensemble simulations with PICs for 2010, the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is used to identify areas with pronounced effect of an LULCC or, rather, the parametrization of the land-use classes. While in the urbanization scenarios clear and statistically significant signals are found for air temperature and for both latent- and sensible heat (SNR values up to 24), the effects are less pronounced for precipitation, and for deforestation in general (SNR values < 1). ... mehr

DOI: 10.1002/joc.4836
Zitationen: 31
Web of Science
Zitationen: 30
Zitationen: 36
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0899-8418, 0196-1748, 1097-0088
KITopen-ID: 1000064208
HGF-Programm 12.02.03 (POF III, LK 01) Regional Climate-and Water Cycle Variab.
Erschienen in International journal of climatology
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Band 37
Heft 4
Seiten 2080-2100
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
Globale Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung Ziel 11 – Nachhaltige Städte und Gemeinden
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