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Exceptional sequence of severe thunderstorms and related flash floods in May and June 2016 in Germany – Part 1: Meteorological background

Piper, David; Kunz, Michael; Ehmele, Florian; Mohr, Susanna; Mühr, Bernhard; Kron, Andreas; Daniell, James



Abstract (englisch): Abstract. During a 15-day episode from 26 May to 9 June 2016, Germany was affected by an exceptionally large number of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall, related flash floods and creek flooding, hail, and tornadoes caused substantial losses running into billions of euros (EUR). This paper analyzes the key features of the severe thunderstorm episode using extreme value statistics, an aggregated precipitation severity index, and two different objective weather-type classification schemes. It is shown that the thunderstorm episode was caused by the interaction of high moisture content, low thermal stability, weak wind speed, and large-scale lifting by surface lows, persisting over almost 2 weeks due to atmospheric blocking. For the long-term assessment of the recent thunderstorm episode, we draw comparisons to a 55-year period (1960–2014) regarding clusters of convective days with variable length (2–15 days) based on precipitation severity, convection-favoring weather patterns, and compound events with low stability and weak flow. It is found that clusters with more than 8 consecutive convective days are very rare. For example, a 10-day cluster with convective weather patterns prevailing during the recent thunderstorm episode has a probability of less than 1 %.


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung (IWG)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator DOI: 10.5194/nhess-16-2835-2016
ISSN: 1684-9981, 1561-8633
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-648057
KITopen ID: 1000064805
HGF-Programm 12.02.01; LK 01
Erschienen in Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Band 16
Heft 12
Seiten 2835–2850
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
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