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Insights into the deterministic skill of air quality ensembles from the analysis of AQMEII data

Kioutsioukis, I.; Im, U.; Solazzo, E.; Bianconi, R.; Badia, A.; Balzarini, A.; Baró, R.; Bellasio, R.; Brunner, D.; Chemel, C.; Curci, G.; Van Der Gon, H. D.; Flemming, J.; Forkel, R. 1; Giordano, L.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Hirtl, M.; Jorba, O.; Manders-Groot, A.; ... mehr


Simulations from chemical weather models are subject to uncertainties in the input data (e.g. emission inventory, initial and boundary conditions) as well as those intrinsic to the model (e.g. physical parameterization, chemical mechanism). Multi-model ensembles can improve the forecast skill, provided that certain mathematical conditions are fulfilled. In this work, four ensemble methods were applied to two different datasets, and their performance was compared for ozone (O$_{3}$), nitrogen dioxide (NO$_{2}$) and particulate matter (PM$_{10}$). Apart from the unconditional ensemble average, the approach behind the other three methods relies on adding optimum weights to members or constraining the ensemble to those members that meet certain conditions in time or frequency domain. The two different datasets were created for the first and second phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The methods are evaluated against ground level observations collected from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) and AirBase databases. The goal of the study is to quantify to what extent we can extract predictable signals from an ensemble with superior skill over the single models and the ensemble mean. ... mehr

Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000065666
DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-15629-2016
Zitationen: 16
Web of Science
Zitationen: 16
Zitationen: 18
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1680-7316, 1680-7324
KITopen-ID: 1000065666
HGF-Programm 12.02.04 (POF III, LK 01) Urban-Rural Interactions
Erschienen in Atmospheric chemistry and physics
Verlag European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Band 16
Heft 24
Seiten 15629-15652
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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