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DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000065762
Veröffentlicht am 16.03.2018
DOI: 10.1038/ncomms13931
Zitationen: 50
Web of Science
Zitationen: 43

Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models

Schauberger, Bernhard; Archontoulis, Sotirios; Arneth, Almut; Balkovic, Juraj; Ciais, Philippe; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Rolinski, Susanne; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schmid, Erwin; Wang, Xuhui; Schlenker, Wolfram; Frieler, Katja

Abstract (englisch):
High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2041-1723
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-657622
KITopen-ID: 1000065762
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Nature Communications
Band 8
Seiten 13931
Schlagworte Agroecology, Agriculture, Climate-change impacts
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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