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Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Bayer, Anita D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Anthoni, Peter M.; Fuchs, Richard; Arneth, Almut

Abstract:
Land-use and land-cover (LUC) changes are a key uncertainty when attributing changes in measured atmospheric CO2 concentration to its sinks and sources and must also be much better understood to determine the possibilities for land-based climate change mitigation, especially in the light of human demand on other land-based resources. On the spatial scale typically used in terrestrial ecosystem models (0.5 or 1°) changes in LUC over time periods of a few years or more can include bidirectional changes on the sub-grid level, such as the parallel expansion and abandonment of agricultural land (e.g. in shifting cultivation) or cropland–grassland conversion (and vice versa). These complex changes between classes within a grid cell have often been neglected in previous studies, and only net changes of land between natural vegetation cover, cropland and pastures accounted for, mainly because of a lack of reliable high-resolution historical information on gross land transitions, in combination with technical limitations within the models themselves. In the present study we applied a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with a detailed representation of croplands and carbon–nitrogen dynamics to quantify the uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes arising from the choice between net and gross representations of LUC. ... mehr

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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000067296
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-91-2017
Scopus
Zitationen: 10
Web of Science
Zitationen: 10
Coverbild
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2190-4979, 2190-4987
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-672964
KITopen-ID: 1000067296
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Band 8
Heft 1
Seiten 91-111
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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