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Uncertainties in the land-use flux resulting from land-use change reconstructions and gross land transitions

Bayer, A. D.; Lindeskog, M.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Anthoni, P. M.; Fuchs, R.; Arneth, A.

Land-use and land-cover (LUC) changes are a key uncertainty when attributing changes in measured atmospheric CO2 concentration to its sinks and sources and must also be much better understood to determine the possibilities for land-based climate change mitigation, especially in the light of human demand on other land-based resources. On the spatial scale typically used in terrestrial ecosystem models (0.5 or 1°) changes in LUC over time periods of a few years or more can include bidirectional changes on the sub-grid level, such as the parallel expansion and abandonment of agricultural land (e.g. in shifting cultivation) or cropland–grassland conversion (and vice versa). These complex changes between classes within a grid cell have often been neglected in previous studies, and only net changes of land between natural vegetation cover, cropland and pastures accounted for, mainly because of a lack of reliable high-resolution historical information on gross land transitions, in combination with technical limitations within the models themselves. In the present study we applied a state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with a de ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-91-2017
ISSN: 2190-4979, 2190-4987
KITopen ID: 1000067296
Erschienen in Earth System Dynamics
Band 8
Heft 1
Seiten 91-111
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