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The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector

Blanco, Victor; Brown, Calum ORCID iD icon 1,2; Holzhauer, Sascha; Vulturius, Gregor; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. ORCID iD icon 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Adaptation is necessary to cope with or take advantage of the effects of climate change on socio-ecological systems. This is especially important in the forestry sector, which is sensitive to the ecological and economic impacts of climate change, and where the adaptive decisions of owners play out over long periods of time. Relatively little is known about how successful these decisions are likely to be in meeting demands for ecosystem services in an uncertain future.
We explore adaptation to global change in the forestry sector using CRAFTY-Sweden; an agent-based model that represents large-scale land-use dynamics, based on the demand and supply of ecosystem services. Future impacts and adaptation within the Swedish forestry sector were simulated for scenarios of socio-economic change (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) and climatic change (Representative Concentration Pathways, for three climate models), between 2010 and 2100.
Substantial differences were found in the competitiveness and coping ability of land owners implementing different management strategies through time. Generally, multi-objective management was found to provide the best basis for adaptation. ... mehr

DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2017.02.066
Zitationen: 31
Web of Science
Zitationen: 31
Zitationen: 33
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsdatum 01.07.2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0301-4797, 1095-8630
KITopen-ID: 1000068717
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Journal of environmental management
Verlag Elsevier
Band 196
Seiten 36-47
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 08.03.2017
Schlagwörter Adaptive capacity Agent-based model, Climate change, Ecosystem services, Land owner decision-making Scenario
Nachgewiesen in PubMed
Web of Science
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