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Loss of residential buildings in the event of a re-awakening of the Laacher See Volcano (Germany)

Leder, Jan 1; Wenzel, Friedemann 1; Daniell, James E. 1; Gottschämmer, Ellen 1
1 Geophysikalisches Institut (GPI), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


We estimate damage and loss to the residential building stock from tephra fallout for a re-eruption of the Laacher See Volcano in Germany with similar volcanological features as compared to the 10900BCE eruption (VEI = 6) but current population and wind conditions. This eruption was the largest eruption north of the Alps since the Late Quaternary. It generated several fallout fans with proximal deposits of several meters in height. The main cities that would be affected today are Cologne, Bonn, Koblenz and Frankfurt with a total population of at least 2.2 million people. We derive possible wind fields from an analysis of 44years of radiosonde observations provided by the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD). As they vary significantly with season, the loss numbers and patterns reflect this dependency. We use the HAZMAP software to calculate the spatial distribution of tephra. HAZMAP simulates the tephra distribution using a 2D advection-diffusion-sedimentation model. The tephra load as a hazard parameter is used to quantify roof and building damage. As the physical parameter for damage due to snow loads is comparable, we utilise the available knowledge on snow load damage to buildings and derive vulnerability curves that are representative within a geo-cell of 500 × 500m. ... mehr

DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.02.019
Zitationen: 7
Web of Science
Zitationen: 6
Zitationen: 7
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Geophysikalisches Institut (GPI)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0377-0273, 1872-6097
KITopen-ID: 1000069317
Erschienen in Journal of volcanology and geothermal research
Verlag Elsevier
Band 337
Seiten 111–123
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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