KIT | KIT-Bibliothek | Impressum | Datenschutz

Methods for forecasting the market penetration of electric drivetrains in the passenger car market

Jochem, Patrick; Gómez Vilchez, Jonatan J.; Ensslen, Axel; Schäuble, Johannes; Fichtner, Wolf

Current car technologies will not solve upcoming challenges of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in road transport. Projections of the market penetration by alternative drive train technologies are controversial regarding both forecast market shares and applied scientific methods. Accepting this latter challenge, we provide a (so far missing) overview of methods applied in this field and give some recommendations for further work.
Our focus is to classify the applied methods into a convenient pattern and to analyse models from the recent scientific literature which consider the electrification of light-duty vehicles. We differentiate the following bottom-up approaches: Econometric models with disaggregated data (such as discrete choice), and agent-based simulation models. The group of top-down models are subdivided into econometric models with aggregated data (e.g. vehicle stock data), system dynamics, as well as integrated assessment models with general equilibrium models. It becomes obvious that some methods have a stronger methodological background whereas others require comprehensive data sets or can be combined more flexibly with other methods. ... mehr

Open Access Logo

Postprint §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000070233
Veröffentlicht am 27.08.2018
DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2017.1326538
Zitationen: 12
Web of Science
Zitationen: 7
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Industriebetriebslehre und Industrielle Produktion (IIP)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0144-1647, 1464-5327
KITopen-ID: 1000070233
Erschienen in Transport reviews
Band 38
Heft 3
Seiten 322-348
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 16.05.2017
Schlagworte market penetration, electric vehicles, modelling, methods, diffusion, forecasting, alternative drivetrains
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
KITopen Landing Page