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Tree species site suitability as a combination of occurrence probability and growth and derivation of priority regions for climate change adaptation

Märkel, U.; Dolos, K.

Two aspects of site suitability were combined, namely species occurrence probability and tree growth as proxies for risk and productivity, aiming to improve climate impact assessments for forests. This measure was used to identify priority regions for climate change adaptation under consideration of current stands. The six most frequent tree species according to German national forest inventory data were used considering repeated measurements. Species distribution and growth models were calculated and combined into one measure. To identify priority regions regarding current forests, we aggregated species-specific negative development of site suitability for stands where a tree species actually occurred. Suitability under climate change increased or remained unchanged for current stands of silver fir, pedunculate oak and sessile oak. European beech and Scots pine showed large area shares with negative changes, but also areas with positive changes in site suitability. For Norway spruce, suitability decreased strongly. Priority regions were concentrated in the federal states Rhineland-Palatinate, Hesse, Baden-Württemberg, Thuringia, Lower Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt. ... mehr

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DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000071173
DOI: 10.3390/f8060181
Zitationen: 2
Zitationen: 1
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Geographie und Geoökologie (IFGG)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1999-4907
KITopen-ID: 1000071173
Erschienen in Forests
Verlag MDPI
Band 8
Heft 6
Seiten 181
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Schlagwörter species distribution modeling; site suitability; climate change; tree growth modeling; vulnerability; comprehensive site suitability
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