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A quantitative risk model for a uniform description of safety and security

Beyerer, Jürgen; Geisler, Jürgen

Abstract (englisch):

A mathematical framework is presented that allows to describe quantitatively and in an integrative way the risk of safety and security constellations. Thereby, great importance is attached to a clear notation with a sound semantics. Based on a role model with the three roles »source of danger«, »subject of protection« and »protector«, risk is modelled quantitatively using statistical decision and game theory. Uncertainties are modelled based of probability distributions, whereupon probability is interpreted in a Bayesian context as a degree of belief DoB. The set D of sources of danger is endowed with a DoB-distribution describing the probability of occurrence. D is partitioned into subsets that describe dangers which are due to random causes, carelessness and intention. A set of flanks of vulnerability F is assigned to each subject of protection. These flanks characterize different aspects of vulnerability concerning mechanical, physiological, informational, economical, reputational, psychological, ... vulnerability. The flanks of vulnerability are endowed with conditional DoBs that describe to which degree an incidence or an attack will be harmful. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Anthropomatik und Robotik (IAR)
Kompetenzzentrum für angewandte Sicherheitstechnologie (KASTEL)
Publikationstyp Proceedingsbeitrag
Publikationsjahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISBN: 978-3-8396-0908-8
KITopen-ID: 1000071784
Erschienen in Proceedings of the 10th Future Security - Security Research Conference "Future Security", Berlin, 10, 2015
Verlag Fraunhofer Verlag
Seiten 317-324
Projektinformation KASTEL_SVI (BMBF, 16KIS0521)
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