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Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

Frieler, K.; Schauberger, B.; Arneth, A.; Balkovič, J.; Chryssanthacopoulos, J.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Folberth, C.; Khabarov, N.; Müller, C.; Olin, S.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Schaphoff, S.; Schewe, J.; Schmid, E.; Warszawski, L.; Levermann, A.

Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence
farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for
people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management
decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding
of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been
addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported
national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model
simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in
wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed
50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan
and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation
shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries.
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Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000071857
DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000525
Zitationen: 39
Web of Science
Zitationen: 31
Zitationen: 36
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2328-4277
KITopen-ID: 1000071857
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Earth's future
Verlag Wiley Open Access
Band 5
Heft 6
Seiten 605-616
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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