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Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

Pantillon, Florian 1; Knippertz, Peter ORCID iD icon 1; Corsmeier, Ulrich 1
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Abstract. New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995–2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2–4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. ... mehr

Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000075864
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017
Zitationen: 9
Web of Science
Zitationen: 9
Zitationen: 9
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1684-9981, 1561-8633
KITopen-ID: 1000075864
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Verlag European Geosciences Union (EGU)
Band 17
Heft 10
Seiten 1795–1810
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Gefördert durch den KIT-Publikationsfonds
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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