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Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.; Harrison, Paula A.

Abstract:
Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. ... mehr



Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038
Scopus
Zitationen: 3
Web of Science
Zitationen: 3
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0048-9697, 1879-1026
KITopen-ID: 1000076405
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in The science of the total environment
Band 622-623
Seiten 1611-1620
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 18.10.2017
Schlagworte Agricultural land use, Crop rotation, Empirically-grounded agent-based model Environmental change impact assessment Farmer household survey Stakeholder-driven scenarios
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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