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Modelling regional cropping patterns under scenarios of climate and socio-economic change in Hungary

Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. ORCID iD icon 1; Harrison, Paula A.
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)

Abstract:

Impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic change on agricultural land systems are inherently uncertain. The role of regional and local level actors is critical in developing effective policy responses that accommodate such uncertainty in a flexible and informed way across governance levels. This study identified potential regional challenges in arable land use systems, which may arise from climate and socio-economic change for two counties in western Hungary: Veszprém and Tolna. An empirically-grounded, agent-based model was developed from an extensive farmer household survey about local land use practices. The model was used to project future patterns of arable land use under four localised, stakeholder-driven scenarios of plausible future socio-economic and climate change. The results show strong differences in farmers' behaviour and current agricultural land use patterns between the two regions, highlighting the need to implement focused policy at the regional level. For instance, policy that encourages local food security may need to support improvements in the capacity of farmers to adapt to physical constraints in Veszprém and farmer access to social capital and environmental awareness in Tolna. ... mehr


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Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.10.038
Scopus
Zitationen: 19
Web of Science
Zitationen: 19
Dimensions
Zitationen: 17
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsdatum 01.05.2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0048-9697, 1879-1026
KITopen-ID: 1000076405
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in The science of the total environment
Verlag Elsevier
Band 622-623
Seiten 1611-1620
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 18.10.2017
Schlagwörter Agricultural land use, Crop rotation, Empirically-grounded agent-based model Environmental change impact assessment Farmer household survey Stakeholder-driven scenarios
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Dimensions
Scopus
Globale Ziele für nachhaltige Entwicklung Ziel 2 – Kein HungerZiel 8 – Menschenwürdige Arbeit und WirtschaftswachstumZiel 13 – Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz
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