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Statistical forecasting for precipitation over West Africa based on spatio-temporal precipitation properties and tropical wave activity

Vogel, Peter; Klar, Manuel; Schlüter, Andreas; Knippertz, Peter ORCID iD icon; Fink, Andreas H.; Gneiting, Tilmann


Precipitation forecasts for one up to several days are of high socioeconomic importance for agriculturally dominated societies inWest Africa, regarding both the occurrence as well as the amount of precipitation. However, disappointingly forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models and even statistically postprocessed forecasts still do not outperform simple reference forecasts such as climatology or persistence. More elaborate statistical forecasts can hopefully lead to an improvement in the quality of precipitation forecasts above climatological or persistent ones. In this contribution, we concentrate on the potential of statistical forecasts to predict the occurrence of precipitation, while the prediction of the amount will be addressed in the future. Using increasingly sophisticated statistical models, we start with forecasts solely relying on the spatio-temporal information contained in precipitation observations. With the necessity of a full spatial coverage of precipitation observations in order to understand its spatio-temporal properties, we rely on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations and use accumulation periods of 1 to 5 days for the monsoon seasons from May to mid-October of the years 2007 to 2014. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
Institut für Stochastik (STOCH)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Poster
Publikationsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen-ID: 1000077205
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Veranstaltung European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2017, Vienna, Austria, 23rd - 28th April 2017
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Geophysical Research Abstracts, 19(2017) EGU2017-14108-1
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