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The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden

Blanco, Victor; Holzhauer, Sascha; Brown, Calum ORCID iD icon; Lagergren, Fredrik; Vulturius, Gregor; Lindeskog, Mats; Rounsevell, Mark D. A. ORCID iD icon

Abstract (englisch):

The uncertain effects of climatic change and changing demands for ecosystem services on the distribution of forests and their levels of service provision require assessments of future land-use change, ecosystem service provision, and how ecosystem service demands may be met. We present CRAFTY-Sweden, an agent-based, land-use model that incorporates land owner behaviour and decision-making in modelling future ecosystem service provision in the Swedish forestry sector. Future changes were simulated under scenarios of socio- economic and climatic change between 2010 and 2100. The simulations indicate that the influence of climatic change (on land productivities) may be less important than that of socio-economic change or behavioural differences. Simulations further demonstrate that the variability in land owner and societal behaviour has a substantial role in determining the direction and impact of land-use change. The results indicate a sizeable increase in timber harvesting in coming decades, which together with a substantial decoupling between supply and demand for forest ecosystem services highlights the challenge of continuously meeting demands for ecosystem services over long periods of time. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 02.2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2212-0416
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-800235
KITopen-ID: 1000080023
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Ecosystem Services
Verlag Elsevier
Band 23
Seiten 174–208
Schlagwörter Agent-based modelling, Behaviour, Ecosystem services supply and demand, Forestry sector, Scenario analysis
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Dimensions
Scopus

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Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
Scopus
Zitationen: 32
Web of Science
Zitationen: 31
Dimensions
Zitationen: 34
Seitenaufrufe: 552
seit 05.05.2018
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