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The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden

Blanco, Victor; Holzhauer, Sascha; Brown, Calum; Lagergren, Fredrik; Vulturius, Gregor; Lindeskog, Mats; Rounsevell, Mark D.A.

Abstract (englisch):
The uncertain effects of climatic change and changing demands for ecosystem services on the distribution of forests and their levels of service provision require assessments of future land-use change, ecosystem service provision, and how ecosystem service demands may be met. We present CRAFTY-Sweden, an agent-based, land-use model that incorporates land owner behaviour and decision-making in modelling future ecosystem service provision in the Swedish forestry sector. Future changes were simulated under scenarios of socio- economic and climatic change between 2010 and 2100. The simulations indicate that the influence of climatic change (on land productivities) may be less important than that of socio-economic change or behavioural differences. Simulations further demonstrate that the variability in land owner and societal behaviour has a substantial role in determining the direction and impact of land-use change. The results indicate a sizeable increase in timber harvesting in coming decades, which together with a substantial decoupling between supply and demand for forest ecosystem services highlights the challenge of continuously meeting demands for ecosystem services over long periods of time. ... mehr

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Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003
Scopus
Zitationen: 9
Web of Science
Zitationen: 9
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2212-0416
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-800235
KITopen-ID: 1000080023
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Ecosystem Services
Band 23
Seiten 174–208
Schlagworte Agent-based modelling, Behaviour, Ecosystem services supply and demand, Forestry sector, Scenario analysis
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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