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Verlagsausgabe
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000080111
Veröffentlicht am 08.03.2018
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-016-0999-y
Scopus
Zitationen: 8
Web of Science
Zitationen: 3

Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

Brown, Calum; Holzhauer, Sascha; Metzger, Marc J.; Paterson, James S.; Rounsevell, Mark

Abstract:
Attempts to influence the development of land systems are often based on detailed scenarios that constrain relevant factors, describe a range of divergent but plausible futures and identify potential pathways to visions of desirable conditions. However, a number of assumptions are usually made during this process, and one of the most substantial is that land managers display homogeneous, economically rational behaviour across space, time and scenarios. This assumption precludes the consideration of important behavioural effects and limits understanding of the feasibility of scenario-based pathways towards visions. We use an agent-based land use model to examine broad forms of behavioural variation within defined scenarios in theoretical contexts. We relate model results to stakeholder-developed visions of desired future land systems in Europe and so assess the scope for behavioural pathways towards these normative futures. We find that the achievability of visions is determined by internal inconsistencies, scenario conditions and the multifunctional potential of land uses, with a fundamental tension between large-scale land use prod ... mehr


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Physik (PHYSIK)
Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1436-378X, 1436-3798
URN: urn:nbn:de:swb:90-801111
KITopen ID: 1000080111
HGF-Programm 12.02.02; LK 01
Erschienen in Regional environmental change
Seiten 1–15
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 24.06.2016
Schlagworte Agent-based modelling; Scenario; Climate change; Land use; Multifunctional; Stakeholder engagement
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