KIT | KIT-Bibliothek | Impressum | Datenschutz

Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems

Brown, Calum ORCID iD icon; Holzhauer, Sascha; Metzger, Marc J.; Paterson, James S.; Rounsevell, Mark ORCID iD icon


Attempts to influence the development of land systems are often based on detailed scenarios that constrain relevant factors, describe a range of divergent but plausible futures and identify potential pathways to visions of desirable conditions. However, a number of assumptions are usually made during this process, and one of the most substantial is that land managers display homogeneous, economically rational behaviour across space, time and scenarios. This assumption precludes the consideration of important behavioural effects and limits understanding of the feasibility of scenario-based pathways towards visions. We use an agent-based land use model to examine broad forms of behavioural variation within defined scenarios in theoretical contexts. We relate model results to stakeholder-developed visions of desired future land systems in Europe and so assess the scope for behavioural pathways towards these normative futures. We find that the achievability of visions is determined by internal inconsistencies, scenario conditions and the multifunctional potential of land uses, with a fundamental tension between large-scale land use productivity and small-scale diversity (i.e. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000080111
Veröffentlicht am 08.03.2018
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-016-0999-y
Zitationen: 27
Web of Science
Zitationen: 21
Zitationen: 29
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1436-378X, 1436-3798
KITopen-ID: 1000080111
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Regional environmental change
Verlag Springer
Seiten 1–15
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 24.06.2016
Schlagwörter Agent-based modelling; Scenario; Climate change; Land use; Multifunctional; Stakeholder engagement
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
KITopen Landing Page