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Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis

Holman, I. P.; Brown, Calum ORCID iD icon; Janes, V.; Sandars, D.


The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. ... mehr

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.001
Zitationen: 74
Zitationen: 82
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 02.2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0308-521X, 1873-2267
KITopen-ID: 1000080116
Erschienen in Agricultural systems
Verlag Elsevier
Band 151
Seiten 126–135
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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