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The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble

Nikulin, Grigory; Lennard, Christopher; Dosio, Alessandro; Kjellström, Erik; Chen, Youmin; Hänsler, Andreas; Kupiainen, Marco; Laprise, Rene; Mariotti, Laura; Fox Maule, Cathrine; van Meijgaard, Erik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Scinocca, John F.; Somot, Samuel

There is a general lack of information about the potential effects of 1.5, 2 or more degrees of global warming on the regional climates within Africa, and most studies that address this use data from coarse resolution global models. Using a large ensemble of CORDEX Africa simulations, we present a pan-African overview of the effects of 1.5 and 2°C global warming levels (GWLs) on the African climate. The CORDEX simulations, consistent with their driving global models, show a robust regional warming exceeding the mean global one over most of Africa. The highest increase in annual mean temperature is found over the subtropics and the smallest one over many coastal regions. Projected changes in annual mean precipitation have a tendency to wetter conditions in some parts of Africa (e.g. central/eastern Sahel and eastern Africa) at both GWLs, but models' agreement on the sign of change is low. In contrast to mean precipitation there is a consistent increase in daily precipitation intensity of wet days over a large fraction of tropical Africa emerging already at 1.5°C GWL and strengthening at 2°C. A consistent difference between 2°C and 1.5°C warmings is also found for projected changes in annual mean temperature and daily precipitation intensity. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000080574
Veröffentlicht am 14.06.2018
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab1b1
Zitationen: 82
Zitationen: 84
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1748-9318, 1748-9326
KITopen-ID: 1000080574
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Environmental research letters
Verlag IOP Publishing
Band 13
Heft 6
Seiten 065003/1-10
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 23.02.2018
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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