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Gross changes in reconstructions of historic land cover/use for Europe between 1900 and 2010

Fuchs, Richard; Herold, Martin; Verburg, Peter H.; Clevers, Jan G.P.W.; Eberle, Jonas

Historic land-cover/use change is important for studies on climate change, soil carbon, and biodiversity assessments. Available reconstructions focus on the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). This leads to a serious underestimation of land-cover/use dynamics with impacts on the biogeochemical and environmental assessments based on these reconstructions. In this study, we quantified to what extent land-cover/use reconstructions underestimate land-cover/use changes in Europe for the 1900–2010 period by accounting for net changes only. We empirically analyzed available historic land-change data, quantified their uncertainty, corrected for spatial-temporal effects and identified underlying processes causing differ- ences between gross and net changes. Gross changes varied for different land classes (largest for forest and grassland) and led to two to four times the amount of net changes. We applied the empirical results of gross change quantities in a spatially explicit reconstruction of historic land change to reconstruct gross changes for the EU ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2015
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486
KITopen ID: 1000080672
Erschienen in Global change biology
Band 21
Heft 1
Seiten 299-313
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