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The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

Dunn, Miriam; Rounsevell, Mark; Boberg, Fredrik; Clarke, Elizabeth; Christensen, Jens; Madsen, Marianne

Wine production is climate dependent and highly sensitive to weather variability, which makes the sector a good indicator of ongoing and future climate change impacts. Under high-end climate change (HECC), temperatures in Scotland are projected to increase significantly by the end of the twenty-first century. This raises the possibility of future temperatures becoming sufficiently high to support the growth of wine grapes. In this paper, we explore to what extent Scotland might become suitable for wine production under HECC using a climate analogue approach. Specifically, we address the following questions. What are the projected late twenty-first century temperature changes in Scotland? Where in Europe are current climates (based on summer and annual temperatures) similar to those projected for Scotland by the end of the twenty-first century under HECC? Are any of these locations currently wine grape growing regions? The temperature analogues towards the end of the twenty-first century occurred at more southerly latitudes in Europe, with some variability from west to east arising from the influence of continental climates. Temperature analogues alone match with several current wine grape growing regions of Europe, suggesting that future climates in Scotland could support wine production. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000080853
Veröffentlicht am 14.03.2018
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-017-1240-3
Zitationen: 7
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2017
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1436-378X, 1436-3798
KITopen-ID: 1000080853
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Regional environmental change
Verlag Springer
Seiten 1-10
Schlagwörter High-end climate change, Scotland, Climate analogues, Wine grapes, Wine production
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
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