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Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland

Li, Sen; Gilbert, Lucy; Harrison, Paula A.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.


Lyme disease is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the temperate Northern Hemisphere. The abundance of infected nymphal ticks is commonly used as a Lyme disease risk indicator. Temperature can influence the dynamics of disease by shaping the activity and development of ticks and, hence, altering the contact pattern and pathogen transmission between ticks and their host animals. A mechanistic, agent-based model was developed to study the temperature-driven seasonality of Ixodes ricinus ticks and transmission of Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato across mainland Scotland. Based on 12-year averaged temperature surfaces, our model predicted that Lyme disease risk currently peaks in autumn, approximately six weeks after the temperature peak. The risk was predicted to decrease with increasing altitude. Increases in temperature were predicted to prolong the duration of the tick questing season and expand the risk area to higher altitudinal and latitudinal regions. These predicted impacts on tick population ecology may be expected to lead to greater tick–host contacts under climate warming and, hence, greater risks of pathogen transmission. ... mehr

DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0140
Zitationen: 34
Web of Science
Zitationen: 34
Zitationen: 38
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1742-5662, 1742-5689
KITopen-ID: 1000080854
Erschienen in Interface
Verlag The Royal Society
Band 13
Heft 116
Seiten Art. Nr. 20160140
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 30.03.2016
Schlagwörter agent-based model, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, climate warming, environmental health hazard, Ixodes ricinus, spatio-temporal dynamics
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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