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Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions

Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark ORCID iD icon


Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3039
Zitationen: 110
Zitationen: 126
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2016
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1758-678X, 1758-6798
KITopen-ID: 1000080857
Erschienen in Nature climate change
Verlag Nature Research
Band 6
Heft 9
Seiten 885-890
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 23.05.2016
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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