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Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle

Quesada, Benjamin; Arneth, Almut; Robertson, Eddy; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie

Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African ra ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000083684
Veröffentlicht am 21.06.2018
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aac4c3
Zitationen: 4
Web of Science
Zitationen: 2
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1748-9326
KITopen-ID: 1000083684
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Environmental research letters
Band 13
Heft 6
Seiten 064023
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 06.06.2018
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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