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HESS Opinions “should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?”

Ehret, U.; Zehe, E.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Liebert, J.

Abstract:
Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step) has now become a standard procedure in climate change impact studies. In this paper we argue that BC is currently often used in an invalid way: it is added to the GCM/RCM model chain without sufficient proof that the consistency of the latter (i.e. the agreement between model dynamics/model output and our judgement) as well as the generality of its applicability increases. BC methods often impair the advantages of circulation models by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Currently used BC methods largely neglect feedback mechanisms, and it is unclear whether they are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying BC increases agreement of climate model output with observations in hindcasts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000084411
Veröffentlicht am 12.07.2018
Originalveröffentlichung
DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012
Scopus
Zitationen: 282
Web of Science
Zitationen: 252
Coverbild
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung (IWG)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2012
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1027-5606, 1607-7938
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-844112
KITopen-ID: 1000084411
Erschienen in Hydrology and earth system sciences
Band 16
Heft 9
Seiten 3391-3404
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 21.09.2012
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
Scopus
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