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Statistical Rainfall Forecasts in the Tropics Based on Spatio-Temporal Precipitation Properties and Tropical Wave Activity

Vogel, Peter; Schlueter, Andreas; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas H.; Gneiting, Tilmann; Klar, Manuel

Precipitation forecasts for one up to several days are of high socioeconomic importance throughout the tropics, regarding both the occurrence as well as the amount of precipitation. However, forecasts based on numerical weather prediction models and even statistically postprocessed forecasts hardly outperform simple reference forecasts such as climatology or persistence in parts of the tropics, especially over West Africa, and thus are of no practical use in these regions.

In this contribution, we investigate the potential of statistical forecasts based on near-real time observations to predict the occurrence of precipitation, while the prediction of rainfall amount will be addressed in the future. Starting from relatively simple climatology-based forecasts as a reference, we improve predictions by including spatio-temporal information contained in precipitation observations and illustrate this approach over West Africa. The derivation of the spatio-temporal properties of the precipitation fields require a full spatial coverage of precipitation observations and therefore we rely on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Poster
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen-ID: 1000085044
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Veranstaltung European Geosciences Union General Assembly (2018), Wien, Österreich, 08.04.2018 – 13.04.2018
Bemerkung zur Veröffentlichung Geophysical Research Abstracts, 20 (2018) EGU2018-6825-1
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