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Projected Heat Stress Under 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming Scenarios Creates Unprecedented Discomfort for Humans in West Africa

Sylla, M. B.; Faye, A.; Giorgi, F.; Diedhiou, A.; Kunstmann, H. 1,2
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
2 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


Heat and discomfort indices are applied to the multimodel ensemble mean of COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment‐Africa regional climate model projections to investigate future changes in heat stress and the proportion of human population at risk under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming scenarios over West Africa. The results show that heat stress of category Extreme Caution is projected to extend spatially (up to 25%) over most of the Gulf of Guinea, Sahel, and Sahara desert areas, with different regional coverage during the various seasons. Similarly, the projected seasonal proportion of human population at discomfort substantially increases to more than 50% over most of the region. In particular, in June–August over the Sahel and the western Sahara desert, new areas (15% of West Africa) where most of the population is at risk emerge. This indicates that from 50% to almost everyone over most of the Sahel countries and part of the western Sahara desert is at risk of possible heat cramp, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke in future climate scenarios. These conditions become more frequent and are accompanied by the emergence of days with dangerous heat stress category during which everyone feels discomfort and is vulnerable to a likely heat cramp and heat exhaustion. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000085378
Veröffentlicht am 23.08.2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF000873
Zitationen: 84
Zitationen: 88
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2328-4277
KITopen-ID: 1000085378
HGF-Programm 12.02.03 (POF III, LK 01) Regional Climate-and Water Cycle Variab.
Erschienen in Earth's future
Verlag Wiley Open Access
Band 6
Heft 7
Seiten 1029-1044
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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