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Analyzing prediction market trading behaviour to select Delphi-experts [in press]

Kloker, Simon; Klatt, Frederik; Höffer, Jan; Weinhardt, Christof

Abstract:
Purpose

The selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees.

Findings

The paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and t ... mehr


Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Informationswirtschaft und Marketing (IISM)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1463-6689
KITopen ID: 1000086116
Erschienen in Foresight
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 07.08.2018
Schlagworte Delphi method, Crowd sourcing, Expert selection, Prediction market, Real-time Delphi, Trading behaviour analysis
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