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Revisiting the Mystery of Recent Stratospheric Temperature Trends

Maycock, Amanda C.; Randel, William J.; Steiner, Andrea K.; Karpechko, Alexey Yu; Christy, John; Saunders, Roger; Thompson, David W. J.; Zou, Cheng-Zhi; Chrysanthou, Andreas; Luke Abraham, N.; Akiyoshi, Hideharu; Archibald, Alex T.; Butchart, Neal; Chipperfield, Martyn; Dameris, Martin; Deushi, Makoto; Dhomse, Sandip; Di Genova, Glauco; Jöckel, Patrick; ... mehr


Simulated stratospheric temperatures over the period 1979–2016 in models from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative are compared with recently updated and extended satellite data sets. The multimodel mean global temperature trends over 1979–2005 are -0.88 ± 0.23, -0.70 ± 0.16, and -0.50 ± 0.12 K/decade for the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) channels 3 (~40–50 km), 2 (~35–45 km), and 1 (~25–35 km), respectively (with 95% confidence intervals). These are within the uncertainty bounds of the observed temperature trends from two reprocessed SSU data sets. In the lower stratosphere, the multimodel mean trend in global temperature for the Microwave Sounding Unit channel 4 (~13–22 km) is -0.25 ± 0.12 K/decade over 1979–2005, consistent with observed estimates from three versions of this satellite record. The models and an extended satellite data set comprised of SSU with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A show weaker global stratospheric cooling over 1998–2016 compared to the period of intensive ozone depletion (1979–1997). This is due to the reduction in ozone-induced cooling from the slowdown of ozone trends and the onset of ozone recovery since the late 1990s. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000086292
Veröffentlicht am 05.10.2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL078035
Zitationen: 60
Web of Science
Zitationen: 54
Zitationen: 60
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Scientific Computing Center (SCC)
Universität Karlsruhe (TH) – Zentrale Einrichtungen (Zentrale Einrichtungen)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 0094-8276
KITopen-ID: 1000086292
HGF-Programm 46.11.01 (POF III, LK 01) Computational Science and Mathematical Methods
Erschienen in Geophysical research letters
Verlag John Wiley and Sons
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 28.09.2018
Schlagwörter Temperature trends, stratosphere, greenhouse gases, satellites, ozone depletion, chemistry-climate model
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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