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Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Hagg, Wilfried; Mayr, Elisabeth; Mannig, Birgit; Reyers, Mark; Schubert, David; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Peters, Juliane; Pieczonka, Tino; Juen, Martin; Bolch, Tobias; Paeth, Heiko; Mayer, Christoph

Abstract:
The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice mel ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000086957
Veröffentlicht am 25.10.2018
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2073-4441
urn:nbn:de:swb:90-869571
KITopen-ID: 1000086957
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Water
Band 10
Heft 11
Seiten Article No.1513
Schlagworte glaciers; debris-covered glaciers; hydrological modelling; climate scenarios; Tian Shan
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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