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Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

Hagg, Wilfried; Mayr, Elisabeth; Mannig, Birgit; Reyers, Mark; Schubert, David; Pinto, Joaquim G. 1; Peters, Juliane; Pieczonka, Tino; Juen, Martin; Bolch, Tobias; Paeth, Heiko; Mayer, Christoph
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung (IMK), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000086957
Veröffentlicht am 25.10.2018
DOI: 10.3390/w10111513
Zitationen: 12
Web of Science
Zitationen: 11
Zitationen: 14
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung Troposphärenforschung (IMKTRO)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2073-4441
KITopen-ID: 1000086957
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01) Proc.res.f.multisc.predictab.of weather
Erschienen in Water
Verlag MDPI
Band 10
Heft 11
Seiten Article No.1513
Schlagwörter glaciers; debris-covered glaciers; hydrological modelling; climate scenarios; Tian Shan
Nachgewiesen in Scopus
Web of Science
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