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The role of serial European windstorm clustering for extreme seasonal losses as determined from multi-centennial simulations of high-resolution global climate model data

Priestley, Matthew D. K.; Dacre, Helen F.; Shaffrey, Len C.; Hodges, Kevin I.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

Extratropical cyclones are the most damaging natural hazard to affect western Europe. Serial clustering occurs when many intense cyclones affect one specific geographic region in a short period of time which can potentially lead to very large seasonal losses. Previous studies have shown that intense cyclones may be more likely to cluster than less intense cyclones. We revisit this topic using a high-resolution climate model with the aim to determine how important clustering is for windstorm-related losses.

The role of windstorm clustering is investigated using a quantifiable metric (storm severity index, SSI) that is based on near-surface meteorological variables (10m wind speed) and is a good proxy for losses. The SSI is used to convert a wind footprint into losses for individual windstorms or seasons. 918 years of a present-day ensemble of coupled climate model simulations from the High-Resolution Global Environment Model (HiGEM) are compared to ERA-Interim reanalysis. HiGEM is able to successfully reproduce the wintertime North Atlantic/European circulation, and represent the large-scale circulation associated with the serial ... mehr

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Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000087418
Veröffentlicht am 13.11.2018
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Forschungsbereich Troposphäre (IMK-TRO)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Jahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 1684-9981
KITopen-ID: 1000087418
HGF-Programm 12.01.02 (POF III, LK 01)
Erschienen in Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Band 18
Heft 11
Seiten 2991–3006
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 12.11.2018
Nachgewiesen in Web of Science
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