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Engineering Delphi-Markets for Crowd-based Prediction - The FAZ.NET-Orakel and other Cases

Kloker, Simon Andreas


Reliable forecasting is a key success factor of most organizations and companies. Where historical data is not available, the forecasts address questions in the far future, information is dispersed regarding location and form, or conflicting goals or values have to be considered, judgmental forecasting methods based on experts or the crowd are typically applied. However, several judgmental forecasting methods exist and each method has some individual weaknesses. Delphi-Markets are an integrated approach of prediction markets and Real-Time Delphi studies. Depending on their implementation, they allow to combine several properties of both approaches in order to overcome individual weaknesses. Three different ways to integrate the method are presented and discussed in this work. In order to better understand challenges and potentials of Delphi-Markets, the FAZ.NET-Orakel was instantiated and made publicly available for evaluation and improvement of an exemplary Delphi-Market under real-world conditions. In this context, four proposed improvements for the integrated approach were evaluated in four research projects. These projects correspond to the four sources of forecasting error according to the Judgmental Forecasting Improvement Model, introduced and derived in this dissertation as well. ... mehr

Volltext §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000087432
Veröffentlicht am 14.11.2018
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften – Institut für Informationswirtschaft und Marketing (IISM)
Publikationstyp Hochschulschrift
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator urn:nbn:de:swb:90-874324
KITopen-ID: 1000087432
Verlag Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
Umfang XII, 167 S.
Art der Arbeit Dissertation
Fakultät Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften (WIWI)
Institut Fakultät für Wirtschaftswissenschaften – Institut für Informationswirtschaft und Marketing (IISM)
Prüfungsdatum 31.10.2018
Schlagwörter Prediction Markets, Manipulation and Fraud, Judgmental Forecasting, Delphi-Markets, Delphi Method, Action Design Research
Referent/Betreuer Weinhardt, C.
KIT – Die Forschungsuniversität in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft
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