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A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics

Pugh, Thomas 1; Jones, C. D.; Huntingford, C.; Burton, C.; Arneth, Almut 1; Brovkin, V.; Ciais, P.; Lomas, M.; Robertson, E.; Piao, S. L.; Sitch, S.
1 Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)


The terrestrial biosphere shows substantial inertia in its response to environmental change. Hence, assessments of transient changes in ecosystem properties to 2100 do not capture the full magnitude of the response realized once ecosystems reach an effective equilibrium with the changed environmental boundary conditions. This equilibrium state can be termed the committed state, in contrast to a transient state in which the ecosystem is in disequilibrium. The difference in ecosystem properties between the transient and committed states represents the committed change yet to be realized. Here an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation model simulations was used to assess the changes in tree cover and carbon storage for a variety of committed states, relative to a preindustrial baseline, and to attribute the drivers of uncertainty. Using a subset of simulations, the committed changes in these variables post‐2100, assuming climate stabilization, were calculated. The results show large committed changes in tree cover and carbon storage, with model disparities driven by residence time in the tropics, and residence time and productivity in the boreal. ... mehr

Verlagsausgabe §
DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000088159
Veröffentlicht am 30.11.2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF000935
Zitationen: 19
Web of Science
Zitationen: 19
Zitationen: 30
Cover der Publikation
Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Publikationsmonat/-jahr 10.2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator ISSN: 2328-4277
KITopen-ID: 1000088159
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Erschienen in Earth's future
Verlag Wiley Open Access
Band 6
Heft 10
Seiten 1413–1432
Vorab online veröffentlicht am 04.10.2018
Nachgewiesen in Dimensions
Web of Science
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