Trade-offs between carbon storage, crop yield production and water supply at the global scale – comparing different planning horizons

We analyzed trade-offs of different land use options with respect to three ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, food provisioning and water provisioning) at the global scale. Thereby, we want identify possible pathways to reach three related SDGs. The LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model is used to simulate the ES provision of global land under different allocation of land use (potential natural vegetation and 4 major crop types) considering climate, atmospheric CO2 levels, irrigation water availability, and the distribution of protected areas. A multi-objective genetic algorithm has been used to identify Pareto-optimal solutions with respect to the three objectives and constraints in form of protected areas and biophysical limits of the different crops. The analysis is performed at a 1°x1° grid cell resolution for three time horizons current, short term planning and long term planning horizon. The optimization approach takes the current level of ecosystem service provisioning as a constraint into account. Results indicate a potential for a simultaneous increase of all three services. Spatial patterns of land use for the solutions have been analyzed by means of a cluster analysis.