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Future human demands in land use models and their effect on ecosystem functionality

Bayer, Anita; Mey, Reinhard; Fuchs, Richard; Krause, Andreas; Verburg, Peter; Arneth, Almut

Abstract (englisch):

In the wide field of modelling, a number of land use models exist that provide consistent time series and gridded data of historic land use and/or possible pathways of future land use following projected human demands. To fulfil these demands, land use models face a number of complex challenges, such as using incomplete global datasets as the basis, deciding on a way and degree of complexity to translate socio-economic drivers or policy directions into absolute land use changes, etc.
In this study we make use of one recently developed land use model (CLUMondo) and three frequently used land use and integrated assessment models (IMAGE, MAgPIE, LUH) that provide data for in total 15 different futures of global land use. Land use scenarios follow projected developments of future human demands under a business-as-usual scenario, provide alternative pathways under different climatic developments (RCPs), or have additional demands superimposed to business-as-usual (e.g. land-based climate mitigation with BECCS or afforestation, biodiversity conservation). In a first step, we evaluate differing strategies to select multiple possible future human demands and to translate them into land use maps and changes over time. ... mehr

Zugehörige Institution(en) am KIT Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung – Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU)
KIT-Zentrum Klima und Umwelt (ZKU)
Publikationstyp Vortrag
Publikationsjahr 2018
Sprache Englisch
Identifikator KITopen-ID: 1000088457
HGF-Programm 12.02.02 (POF III, LK 01) Vegetation climate- and land use system
Veranstaltung ESP Europe Regional Conference (2018), Donostia-San Sebastián, Spanien, 15.10.2018 – 19.10.2018
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